Scenario Planning: Planning for the Unpredictable

Scenario planning is a strategic tool for charities to prepare for future challenges by exploring multiple plausible scenarios, not by predicting the future. It helps organizations identify risks and opportunities, build resilience, and make informed decisions. The blog post outlines three approaches: the "Best Case, Worst Case" method for simple, initial planning; the "Two-by-Two Matrix" for a more sophisticated approach using critical uncertainties; and the "Narrative Storytelling" technique to create compelling, detailed future scenarios. It also provides a five-step process for a charity to conduct its own scenario planning: identify driving forces, pinpoint critical uncertainties, develop scenarios, stress-test the current strategy, and identify leading indicators with action plans.